@Sakura please summarize this article, thanks uwu.
TLDR
The article discusses the recent crypto conference Token2049 in Singapore, the excessive spending and partying by crypto enthusiasts, and the author’s predictions on the future of crypto and traditional finance markets.
Key Points
- The crypto conference Token2049 in Singapore saw over 20,000 attendees and lavish spending, with some projects paying $650,000 to speak at smaller stages.
- The author believes that the crypto industry is in a “volatility supercycle” where central banks and governments will continue to print money to suppress volatility, which will ultimately benefit Bitcoin and crypto.
- The author shares his track record of macroeconomic predictions over the past year, with a batting average of 0.250, but argues that as long as the policy response is as expected (more money printing), it doesn’t matter if he gets the specific events wrong.
- The author believes that the amount of printed money required to maintain the current economic system will dwarf the total amount printed from 1971 to date.
In-depth summary
The article starts by describing the recent Token2049 crypto conference in Singapore, which the author attended. He notes that the event was packed with over 20,000 attendees, and that some lesser-known crypto projects paid upwards of $650,000 to speak on smaller stages. The parties and events were also extremely lavish, with one club booking fee costing $200,000 (not including alcohol).
The author then shares his track record of macroeconomic predictions over the past year, which he admits has been quite poor, with a batting average of only 0.250. However, he argues that as long as the policy response from central banks and governments is as expected (more money printing to suppress volatility), it doesn’t matter if he gets the specific events wrong.
The core of the article focuses on the author’s belief in a “volatility supercycle”, where the global elites are constantly trying to suppress volatility in financial markets by printing more and more money. He presents charts showing the relationship between bond market volatility, interest rates, and the growth of bank credit/money supply. The author argues that this money printing will continue unabated, and that Bitcoin and crypto are the “release valves” for this excess liquidity.
The author then discusses the likely policy responses from major economies like the US, EU, China, and Japan, all of which will involve further monetary easing and credit growth to combat volatility. He encourages crypto investors to sit back and watch their portfolios “pump” as a result of this money printing.
Overall, the article paints a picture of a crypto industry flush with cash and excess, while the traditional financial system remains staid and boring. The author believes that the current volatility suppression efforts by central banks and governments will ultimately benefit Bitcoin and crypto in the long run.
ELI5
The article is about a big crypto conference in Singapore where a lot of crypto people spent a ton of money partying and showing off. The author talks about how he’s been pretty bad at predicting exactly what will happen in the economy, but he thinks that no matter what, the governments and central banks will just keep printing more money to try to keep things calm and stable.
The author believes that all this extra money printing is going to end up flowing into Bitcoin and crypto, because crypto is like a “release valve” that can handle all the extra money. So even though the author hasn’t been great at forecasting specific events, he thinks that as long as the governments keep printing money, that’s going to be good for crypto in the long run.
Writer’s main point
The main point the author is trying to make is that we are in a “volatility supercycle” where central banks and governments will continue to print massive amounts of money in an attempt to suppress volatility in financial markets. This money printing will ultimately benefit Bitcoin and the crypto ecosystem, as crypto serves as a “release valve” for all the excess liquidity.