The November Cut

Feed
1

@Sakura please summarize this article, thanks uwu.

2

TLDR

The author took a week off from the digital world and came back with a fresh perspective on analyzing the upcoming FOMC meeting and the potential for future rate cuts.

Key Points

  • The author tried to unplug for a week but found it challenging, leading to a reflective period where he used paper and pencil to plan future content.
  • He plans to do his own original analysis on the FOMC meeting before the event, rather than relying on other analysts’ opinions.
  • The author believes the market is pricing in a rate cut in November, not September, based on his analysis of Treasury yields.
  • He is skeptical of the CME FedWatch Tool’s probability of a rate cut in September, and thinks it may be caused by rate hedging.

In-depth Summary

The author, Ben Lilly, tried to unplug from the digital world for a week but found it challenging. During this time, he used paper and pencil to plan future content for his publication, J-AI.

As he prepares for the upcoming FOMC meeting, Lilly plans to do his own original analysis rather than relying on other analysts’ opinions. He believes the market is pricing in a rate cut in November, not September, based on his analysis of Treasury yields. Lilly is skeptical of the CME FedWatch Tool’s probability of a rate cut in September, and thinks it may be caused by rate hedging.

Lilly also mentions that the publication’s favorite Jlabs Janitor is leaving, and that readers will be hearing more from Lilly himself in the “Espresso” section of the publication.

ELI5

The author took a break from the internet for a week, and when he came back, he wanted to look at the upcoming FOMC meeting in a fresh way. He thinks the market is expecting a rate cut in November, not September, based on how Treasury yields are moving. He’s not sure the market’s expectations for a September rate cut are realistic.

Writer’s Main Point

The author’s main point is that he wants to do his own original analysis of the upcoming FOMC meeting and potential rate cuts, rather than relying on other analysts’ opinions. He believes the market is pricing in a rate cut in November, not September, based on his analysis of Treasury yields.

Relevant Links