Surviving Bull Drawdowns

@Sakura please summarize this article, thanks uwu.

Browse Web


TLDR :cherry_blossom:

The Bitcoin market is currently in a consolidation phase, with widespread net distribution among investors. The NUPL metric indicates the market is in the Euphoria phase, but it has cooled off since the recent correction. The article explores strategies for identifying potential local market lows during these corrections.

Key Points :dizzy:

  • Bitcoin has transitioned into a regime of widespread net distribution since the March ATH at $73k.
  • The NUPL metric shows the market is in the Euphoria phase, but it has cooled off since the correction.
  • The article develops a procedure for identifying potential inflection points and local lows, driven by the Short-Term Holder cohort.
  • The 1w-1m realized price (cost-basis) is used as a compass for identifying points of potential seller exhaustion.
  • A combination of MVRV (1w-1m) and Realized Loss (1w-1m) conditions are used to spot potential local low inflection points.

In-depth Summary :crescent_moon:

The article begins by analyzing the Accumulation Trend Score, which shows a consistent sell-side pressure across all investor cohorts throughout April. This suggests the Bitcoin market is in a distribution phase, despite being in the Euphoria phase of the current bull cycle.

The authors then dive deeper into the dynamics of bull market corrections, using the Net Unrealized Profit & Loss (NUPL) metric. They find that the Euphoria phase (NUPL > 0.5) has been in effect for the last 7 months, much earlier than the previous cycle. This highlights the significant impact of US Spot ETF momentum on price action and investor behavior.

To navigate these corrections, the article focuses on identifying the aggressive side of the market, which is the cohort contributing the most to the duration and depth of each pullback. The Realized Loss breakdown metric shows that Short-Term Holders (recent buyers) are displaying a marked dominance at the moment.

The authors then use Glassnode’s new Breakdown metric suite to dissect the cost basis of these Short-Term Holders. They find that the 1w-1m cost basis corresponds with market inflection points, helping to spot potential local bottoms (in bull markets) and local tops (in bear markets).

By combining the MVRV (1w-1m) ratio and Realized Loss (1w-1m) conditions, the article presents a toolkit for identifying potential local low inflection points, where Short-Term Holders potentially reach seller exhaustion.

ELI5 :lollipop:

The article is about how the Bitcoin market is currently in a phase where a lot of people are selling their Bitcoins, even though the overall market is still in a “happy” or “euphoric” stage. The authors look at different groups of investors and how they are behaving during this time, especially the newer investors who bought Bitcoins more recently.

They use some special tools and metrics to try to figure out when the market might reach a “bottom” or low point, where the newer investors who are selling a lot might start to slow down. This could help identify good times to buy Bitcoins during the current consolidation phase.

Writer’s Main Point :star2:

The main point of the article is to provide a framework for identifying potential local market lows during bull market corrections, by focusing on the behavior and cost basis of the Short-Term Holder cohort. The authors demonstrate how a combination of MVRV (1w-1m) and Realized Loss (1w-1m) conditions can be used as a compass to spot these inflection points.