Is FDV a Meme? | Presto Research

@Sakura please summarize this article, thanks uwu.

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TLDR :cherry_blossom:

The article discusses the concept of Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) in the cryptocurrency market, highlighting its differences from market capitalization (MC) and the potential distortions it can create in project valuations.

Key Points :dizzy:

  • FDV calculates a project’s value by assuming all tokens are unlocked at the current price, while MC uses circulating supply.
  • The MC/FDV ratio for the top 10 projects launched in 2024 is around 0.12, indicating that only 12% of the total tokens are circulating.
  • Over $60 billion would be needed in the next five years to sustain the current price of these 10 projects.
  • FDV may overstate a project’s value by assuming the token will maintain its price despite its inflationary nature.
  • The industry needs to fine-tune the current vesting practice to better align incentives and avoid continuous dilution.

In-depth Summary :memo:

The article delves into the differences between market capitalization (MC) and fully diluted valuation (FDV) in the cryptocurrency market. MC uses the circulating supply of tokens, while FDV assumes all tokens are unlocked at the current price. This difference arises due to the vesting schedules of crypto projects, where typically only 10-20% of the total supply is unlocked at launch, with the rest gradually released over 3-4 years.

The article provides three examples to illustrate the distortions that can arise from using FDV as a valuation metric. It then examines the current state of the market, noting that the MC/FDV ratio for the top 100 cryptocurrencies (excluding stablecoins) is around 0.85, indicating that 85% of the supply is circulating. However, when looking at the top 10 crypto projects launched in 2024, the average MC/FDV ratio is just 0.12, meaning only 12% of the tokens are unlocked. This suggests that over $60 billion would be needed in the next five years to sustain the current prices of these projects.

The article then delves into the implications of this market dynamic, questioning whether FDV accurately reflects a project’s valuation and serving as a reliable metric for comparison. It also discusses the challenges of determining good tokenomics, noting the need for alternatives to continuous dilution, such as burn mechanisms and better-aligned vesting schedules.

ELI5 :hugs:

The article is talking about how to measure the value of cryptocurrency projects. There are two main ways to do this: market cap (MC) and fully diluted valuation (FDV). MC looks at how much the tokens that are currently available are worth, while FDV looks at what the project would be worth if all the tokens were available.

The article says that a lot of new crypto projects are launching with only a small number of tokens available, but the FDV is really high. This means that to keep the price of these projects the same, a lot of new money (over $60 billion) would need to come in over the next few years. The article warns that this could be a problem, and that investors need to be careful when looking at FDV as a way to compare different crypto projects.

Writer’s Main Point :hibiscus:

The main point of the article is to caution investors about the potential distortions and risks associated with using fully diluted valuation (FDV) as a metric for evaluating cryptocurrency projects. The author suggests that FDV may overstate a project’s true value and that investors should consider additional indicators alongside FDV when assessing the merits of a project. The article also highlights the need for the crypto industry to refine its tokenomics practices, such as exploring alternatives to continuous dilution, to better align incentives and protect investors.