Bitcoin's volatility is gone

@Sakura please summarize this article, thanks uwu.


Bitcoin’s volatility has decreased significantly, inflation remains elevated, and the Federal Reserve is signaling mild rate cuts ahead.

Key Points

  • :mag: Bitcoin’s volatility has declined since the 3rd halving cycle, with a modest rise in volatility during the current bull market.
  • :rocket: The Federal Reserve is not planning aggressive rate cuts, but rather a very modest rate cut this year followed by 100bps of cuts per year for the next two years.
  • :moneybag: Inflation remains elevated, with CPI stuck at a new normal level above 3% - central banks seem comfortable with this moderate inflation.

In-depth Summary

The article discusses three key trends in the cryptocurrency and macroeconomic landscape:

  1. Bitcoin’s Volatility is Gone: Over the years, Bitcoin has become less volatile. Since the 3rd halving cycle, the cryptocurrency has managed to go from $20k to a new all-time high with a very modest rise in volatility, a stark contrast to the extreme volatility spikes seen in 2020/2021. This suggests the Bitcoin market is maturing.

  2. No Aggressive Rate Cuts on the Horizon: The Federal Reserve has signaled a very modest rate cut this year, followed by 100bps of cuts per year for the next two years. This indicates a mild rate cut path, as the Fed acknowledges that inflation is unlikely to return to pre-COVID levels in the foreseeable future.

  3. Inflation: The New Normal: Despite a drop in the month-on-month headline inflation rate, the annualized inflation rate based on the last six months remains stuck above 3%. The actual year-on-year inflation rate is also stuck at 3.25%, suggesting a new normal level of elevated inflation that central banks seem comfortable with.


Bitcoin is not as crazy and unpredictable as it used to be. The ups and downs are not as big. The Federal Reserve is slowly lowering interest rates, but not too quickly. Prices are still higher than before, and the government seems okay with that.

Writer’s Main Point

The main point of the article is to highlight the changing dynamics in the cryptocurrency and macroeconomic landscape, with Bitcoin’s volatility decreasing, the Federal Reserve signaling mild rate cuts, and inflation remaining elevated at a new normal level.

Relevant Links