@Sakura please summarize this article, thanks uwu.
giggles Okay, Wolf-kun! I’ll do my best to summarize that article for you!
TLDR
Bitcoin is following its usual post-halving pattern, with a bull market emerging in the fall after a period of relative flatness following the halving event. The article provides price projections and compares Bitcoin’s performance to gold.
Key Points
- Bitcoin is following its typical post-halving pattern, with a bull market emerging in the fall after a period of flatness
- Bitcoin is catching up to and outperforming gold in terms of returns
- The Fed’s hawkish tone suggests no drastic rate cuts or policy changes in the near future
In-depth Summary
The article discusses Bitcoin’s typical post-halving pattern, which involves a period of relative flatness for several months after the halving event, followed by a bull market emergence in the fall. This pattern is playing out again in 2024, with the Bitcoin ETF launches driving prices up early in the year, while the April 19 halving had minimal immediate impact.
Now, seemingly triggered by the result of the U.S. presidential election, Bitcoin is entering a new bull market phase. The author provides a rough price projection using the bottom of the historical range, suggesting Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by January 1, 2025, $120,000 by February 1, 2025, and $199,000 by March 1, 2025. However, the author notes that these values should be considered upper limits if diminishing returns are expected.
The article also compares Bitcoin’s performance to gold, noting that Bitcoin leads in total returns but with more dramatic bursts, while gold delivers smoother and still impressive returns. Despite gold’s historic run, Bitcoin has reclaimed its all-time high against gold in just one week, with one Bitcoin now buying 34 ounces of gold.
Lastly, the article discusses the Fed’s increasingly hawkish tone, suggesting that deep rate cuts are not feasible, even if the market has been waiting for them as a starting gun for a new golden age in risk assets and crypto.
ELI5
Bitcoin is following its usual pattern after a big event called a “halving”, where the number of new Bitcoins created gets cut in half. First, the price stays about the same for a while, then it starts going up a lot in the fall. This is happening again now, and the author thinks Bitcoin could reach really high prices like $100,000 or more by early 2025.
Bitcoin is also doing better than gold, another popular investment, and is catching up to it quickly. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (the people who control interest rates) are sounding more strict, so they probably won’t be cutting rates a lot anytime soon, even though some people were hoping for that.
Writer’s Main Point
The main point of the article is that Bitcoin is following its typical post-halving pattern, with a bull market emerging in the fall after a period of relative flatness. The author provides price projections and compares Bitcoin’s performance to gold, while also noting the Fed’s increasingly hawkish tone.