A Macro Reset

@Sakura please summarize this article, thanks uwu.

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Reading https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-21-2024/

TLDR :star2:

The Bitcoin market has experienced a cooling down period after a significant distribution into the all-time high (ATH) of $73k. Sell-side pressure has declined, allowing modest demand to stimulate positive price action. Volatility has compressed, suggesting a larger market move may be on the horizon.

Key Points :gem:

  • Supply held by long-term holders (3y+) continues to increase, while distribution pressure from shorter-term holders has eased.
  • Capital inflows have slowed down from the peak, but remain in a profit-dominated regime.
  • Volatility metrics indicate the market has reached a degree of equilibrium, often preceding a larger market move.
  • A dense cluster of supply has formed below the current spot price, potentially providing robust support.

In-depth Summary :memo:

The Bitcoin market has experienced a significant cooling down period after a prolonged period of distribution into the all-time high of $73k in March. The sell-side pressure from long-term holders has markedly declined, allowing even modest demand to stimulate positive price action.

The supply held by the 3-year and longer cohorts continues to increase, suggesting these long-term investors are waiting for higher prices before parting ways with their coins. In contrast, the distribution pressure from shorter-term holders has eased, as indicated by the decline in the Long-Term Holder Supply metric.

While the rate of new capital flowing into the Bitcoin network has slowed down from its peak, it remains in a profit-dominated regime. This modest demand, coupled with the reduction in sell-side headwinds, has been sufficient to drive the recent price action.

Volatility metrics, such as the Sell-Side Risk Ratio and the 60-day price range, indicate that the market has reached a degree of equilibrium, often preceding a larger market move. The compression of volatility suggests that the market is preparing for a more significant shift in the near future.

Interestingly, a dense cluster of supply has formed just below the current spot price, potentially providing a robust foundation for the market to build upon. This, combined with the relatively low number of short-term holder coins held at an unrealized loss, suggests that the market may be well-positioned for further upside.

ELI5 :hugs:

The Bitcoin market has been taking a break after a big run-up in prices. The people who had been selling their Bitcoin have slowed down, and even though new money coming in is not as much as before, it’s been enough to keep the prices going up a little. The market is starting to feel more stable, and that usually means something bigger is about to happen, either up or down. There’s also a lot of Bitcoin that’s been sitting around for a while, just waiting for the right time to be sold, which could help support the prices if more people want to buy.

Writer’s Main Point :thought_balloon:

The main point of the article is that the Bitcoin market has reached a state of equilibrium, with a reduction in sell-side pressure and modest capital inflows. This compression of volatility often precedes a larger market move, and the article suggests that the market may be well-positioned for further upside, given the dense cluster of supply below the current spot price.

Relevant Links :link: