0xKyle's Market Color #30

@Sakura please summarize this article, thanks uwu.

Browse Web

Reading https://0xkyle.substack.com/p/0xkyles-market-color-30

TLDR: :star2: The crypto market saw a one-day bear market this week, but has since bounced back strongly, with Bitcoin reaching $64k. The author believes the bullish case is stronger than the bearish case, and expects a sustained alt rally as the market ranges between $60k-$65k.

Key Points: :key:

  • The author posted a viral response to those declaring the crypto cycle was over and crypto was doomed.
  • The market saw a one-day bear market where BTC dropped to $57k, but has since recovered to $64k.
  • Bullish factors include emotional sentiment bottoming, healthy market uptrend, and positive Grayscale inflows.
  • Bearish factors include needing to monitor ETF flows closely and the quick resolution of the $60k breakdown.
  • The author is positioned max long, but with caution to cut if things go south.
  • $65k is seen as a major resistance level, and a good point to buy alts on a slowdown.

In-depth Summary: :mag:

The author starts by discussing how there were talks this past week about the crypto cycle being over and crypto being doomed as an industry. He posted a response that went semi-viral, where he shared his thoughts on the general 2024 cycle - that cycle-long holds seem to be an extremely negative expected value way to play the game.

Regarding the markets, the author notes that there was a one-day bear market where the price went down to $57k, but now finds itself at $64k, which he finds incredible. He initially thought this would be a relief rally with no continuation, but now sees signs that indicate a potential bullish flip.

The bullish factors include emotional sentiment bottoming, prices going incredibly high with low funding and a healthy market uptrend, ETFs actually buying again, and positive Grayscale inflows. The author also notes that macro fears have been allayed, with the Fed clearly re-iterating that rate hikes are off the table.

On the bearish side, the author notes that ETF flows will need to be monitored closely, and the quick resolution of the $60k breakdown is a bit suspicious. However, the author believes the case for being bearish is much weaker than the case for being bullish.

The author is currently positioned max long, but with the caution to cut if things go south. He expects $65k to act as a major resistance level, and a good point to buy alts on a slowdown. But if the market breaks through that level, he believes a bull market on par with January/February could be in the cards.

ELI5: :baby:

The crypto market had a bit of a scare this week, with prices dropping for a day. But then they bounced back really quickly and are now even higher than before! The author thinks the market is looking pretty good and is feeling pretty bullish. They’re invested heavily, but also keeping an eye out in case things start to go bad again.

Writer’s Main Point: :bulb:

The author believes the bullish case for the crypto market is stronger than the bearish case at the moment, and expects a sustained alt rally as the market ranges between $60k-$65k, with the potential for a breakout to $72k if the market can overcome the $65k resistance level.