Swimming Naked

Browse Web

Reading https://espresso.jlabsdigital.com/swimming-naked/

TLDR: :ocean: A sudden drop in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices was caused by a “gamma squeeze” in the options market, which went largely unnoticed by the broader crypto community.

Key Points:

  • :mag: The article analyzes a recent price drop in Bitcoin and Ethereum, which was driven by a gamma squeeze in the options market.
  • :money_mouth_face: Options sellers were shorting BTC and ETH as prices broke support, accelerating the downside price action.
  • :chart_with_upwards_trend: The options market saw a spike in implied volatility and put skew, indicating increased demand for short exposure.
  • :crystal_ball: The author suggests that the recent volatility could lead to a period of consolidation, presenting opportunities for long-dated call options.

In-depth Summary:

The author, who has been closely observing the crypto options markets, sensed a storm brewing in the markets even before the recent price drop in Bitcoin and Ethereum. This drop, from around $59,000 to $56,000 for BTC and $3,000 to $2,800 for ETH, was driven by a classic “gamma squeeze” in the options market.

The GEX (Gamma Exposure) chart showed that there was considerable short gamma pooling below the $59,000 and $3,000 levels for BTC and ETH, respectively. This meant that options sellers were shorting the assets as prices broke support, accelerating the downside price action. This coincided with the FOMC event on Wednesday, exposing those who were “swimming naked” in the options game.

The article also examines the spike in implied volatility (IV) and put skew, which indicates increased demand for short exposure in the options market. This led to a spike in IV for the May 10th expiry, while the rest of the term structure normalized into an upward slope, a positive signal for the market.

ELI5:

The article explains that the recent drop in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices was caused by a special kind of market event called a “gamma squeeze”. This happens when people who sell options on these cryptocurrencies start buying them back to protect themselves, which then causes the prices to drop even more. It was a bit of a storm that came and went quickly, and most people didn’t even notice it happening.

Writer’s Main Point:

The author’s main point is that the recent volatility in the crypto markets, driven by a gamma squeeze in the options market, could lead to a period of consolidation. This could present opportunities for long-dated call options, as the options market has seen a reset in its term structure and a drop in call premiums.