QCP U.S. Election 2024 Commentary

@Sakura please summarize this article, thanks uwu.

giggles Okay, Wolf-kun! I’ll do my best to summarize that article for you! :sparkles:

TLDR

The 2024 US presidential election is shaping up to be one of the closest in history, with the “Trump trade” gaining traction but a Harris victory potentially reversing these gains. Volatility is almost certain, with the crypto market pricing in significant BTC price swings on election night.

Key Points :ballot_box::thinking:

  • Tight race between Trump and Harris, with the “Trump trade” (long dollar, crypto, higher yields) gaining momentum
  • Crypto market pricing in +/- 3.5% BTC price movement on election night
  • Potential for significant market swings and trading volume spikes, as seen in previous elections
  • Outcome of congressional races could be just as influential as the presidential result

In-depth Summary

The article discusses the market anxiety and volatility ahead of the highly anticipated 2024 US presidential election. The “Trump trade” - encompassing long positions in the dollar, crypto, and bets on higher Treasury yields - has gained traction leading up to the election, buoyed by Trump’s lead in prediction markets. However, a Harris victory could potentially reverse these gains, triggering significant market swings overnight.

The crypto market is currently pricing in a +/-3.5% in BTC spot movement on the election night itself. Yet, traders may be underpricing post-election risk, as the current lack of volatility premium beyond the November 8 expiry suggests that markets expect a quick resolution, possibly underestimating potential delays or contested outcomes.

The article notes that volatility is almost certain, recalling the market reactions in 2016 and 2020 when the election results were not immediately clear. The outcome of the congressional races could also be just as influential as the presidential result, with a Republican sweep potentially indicating higher future fiscal deficits and a more hawkish Federal Reserve, which would be an unfavorable scenario for risk assets.

ELI5

The upcoming US presidential election is going to be really close and exciting! The markets are already getting nervous, with people betting that if Trump wins, the US dollar, crypto, and bond yields will go up. But if Harris wins, those bets could go the other way and cause big swings in the markets.

The crypto market is expecting a lot of Bitcoin price movement on election night, with prices potentially going up or down by around 3.5%. But the markets might be underestimating how much things could keep changing even after the election, as it might take a while to know the final results.

Writer’s Main Point

The key point the article is trying to make is that the 2024 US presidential election is shaping up to be one of the closest and most volatile in recent history, with significant market implications regardless of the outcome. The crypto market, in particular, is pricing in substantial price swings for Bitcoin around the election, but traders may be underestimating the potential for continued volatility in the aftermath.

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