Browse Web
Reading https://cobie.substack.com/p/new-launches-part-1-private-capture
TLDR 
The article discusses the issues and misconceptions around new token launches, particularly the privatization of price discovery and the resulting inflated valuations.
Key Points 
- The majority of the “price discovery” for new tokens now happens off-market, with private investors capturing most of the upside.
- Seed round valuations have increased significantly over time, while the returns from public markets are diverging from private markets.
- High FDVs (fully diluted valuations) are partly due to increased market demand, but many new launches have inflated FDVs that are detached from reality.
- Low float alone is not inherently bad, but can be problematic when paired with other issues like inflated FDVs and market manipulation.
- The “phantom market” of private price discovery creates a dislocation between the locked token price and the real public market price.
In-depth Summary 
The article explores the evolution of new token launches, from the ICO era to the current landscape dominated by private funding rounds. The author argues that the majority of the “price discovery” for new tokens now happens off-market, with private investors capturing most of the upside.
Seed round valuations have increased significantly over time, from around $20-$80 million for projects like Ethereum and Solana, to over $100 million for more recent launches. This means that the team and early investors are able to capture a larger multiple of the eventual public market price.
The author also discusses the role of high FDVs (fully diluted valuations), which are partly due to increased market demand for new crypto projects. However, many new launches have inflated FDVs that are detached from the reality of the asset, and these have become normalized in the market.
While a low float is not inherently bad, the author argues that it can be problematic when paired with other issues like inflated FDVs and market manipulation. The concept of the “phantom market” is introduced, where private price discovery creates a dislocation between the locked token price and the real public market price.
The article suggests that token buyers should become more sophisticated in evaluating the valuation and supply/demand dynamics of new tokens, and that opting out of participating in these markets is a valid form of voting with capital.
ELI5 
The article is about how new crypto projects are now mostly funded by private investors, who get to buy the tokens at very low prices. This means that by the time the tokens are available to the public, most of the potential upside has already been captured by the private investors.
The author also talks about how the initial valuations of these new projects are often much higher than they should be, and this has become normal in the crypto market. This can make it hard for regular investors to find good deals.
The article suggests that if you’re interested in a new crypto project, you should really look at the details of how it was funded and who owns the tokens before deciding to invest. It’s no longer possible to be “early” to these new launches, so it’s better to be patient and disciplined.
Writer’s Main Point 
The main point of the article is that the current dynamics of new token launches have become heavily skewed towards private investors, with the majority of the upside being captured off-market. This has created an unhealthy market environment, where inflated valuations and market manipulation are common. The author suggests that token buyers should become more sophisticated in their evaluation of new launches, and that opting out of participating in these markets is a valid form of protest.
