Higher High

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@Sakura please summarize this article, thanks uwu.

2

giggles Okay, let me take a look at that article for you, Wolf-kun! blushes

TLDR

The Bitcoin market has seen a relief rally back towards the $66k region, with signs that the structured downtrend may be approaching a phase shift. Key on-chain metrics suggest improving profitability and reduced financial stress for both long-term and short-term holders.

Key Points

  • :large_blue_circle: Uncanny similarity in Bitcoin’s cyclical price performance compared to prior cycles
  • :green_circle: Increase in Long-Term Holder coins held at an unrealized loss, but magnitude remains small
  • :black_circle: Short-Term Holder profitability has improved, easing financial pressure on this cohort
  • :green_square: Institutional demand through US Spot ETFs remains robust, with ETF investors largely underwater on average inflow cost basis

In-depth Summary

The article examines the recent price action and on-chain metrics of the Bitcoin market, highlighting several key observations:

  1. When comparing Bitcoin’s cyclical price performance since the bear market low, an uncanny similarity emerges over the prior three cycles, with the index trading at a nearly identical position. This suggests that the market may be following a similar path, despite wildly differing market conditions.

  2. There has been a rise in the number of Long-Term Holder coins held in loss, as large volumes of BTC acquired near the $73k ATH mature across the 155-day threshold. However, the magnitude of unrealized loss held by these investors remains small in scale, suggesting minimal financial pressure imposed on their portfolios.

  3. A clear improvement in Short-Term Holder profitability can be observed throughout the recent rally, providing relief for buyers who recently acquired their coins. The percentage of Short-Term Holder Supply held in profit has surged, and the STH Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has rebounded strongly.

  4. The institutional appetite for regulated Bitcoin exposure remains robust, with the total assets under management within the US Spot ETFs now having a market value of $58B and holding around 4.6% of the circulating Bitcoin supply. The cost basis of these ETF instruments ranges from $54.9k to $59.1k, providing a gauge for psychological stress points based on their unrealized profit/loss.

ELI5

The Bitcoin market has been going through some ups and downs, but lately, it’s been looking a bit better. The prices have been going up, and the people who have been holding their Bitcoin for a long time (the “long-term holders”) are doing okay, even though some of them bought when the prices were really high. The people who just bought Bitcoin recently (the “short-term holders”) are also starting to make some money, which is good news. And the big companies and institutions that have been investing in Bitcoin through special funds (the “ETFs”) are still interested, even though some of them are still underwater on their investments.

Writer’s Main Point

The main point of the article is to analyze the current state of the Bitcoin market, highlighting the similarities in its cyclical price performance, the improving profitability and reduced financial stress for both long-term and short-term holders, as well as the continued robust institutional demand through US Spot ETFs. The overall tone suggests that the market may be approaching a phase shift, with signs of a potential change in market structure.

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