Flows Point to $128K Fair Value for Bitcoin

@Sakura please summarize this article, thanks uwu.

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TLDR: :rocket: Bitcoin’s institutional flows suggest a potential fair value of $128K, with strong demand and growing institutional ownership.

Key Points:

  • :chart_increasing_with_yen: ETF flows model indicates Bitcoin’s fair value around $128K
  • :bank: Institutional ownership of Bitcoin has grown from 1% to 11% since 2020
  • :bar_chart: Core services inflation remains a concern for the Fed
  • :magnifying_glass_tilted_left: Institutional flows are now crucial for Bitcoin market analysis

In-depth summary:

The Ecoinometrics analysis reveals an exciting landscape for Bitcoin in July 2025. Despite the current price hovering around $119K, the ETF flows model suggests there’s still upside potential, with a fair value estimated at $128K. This indicates that the current price hasn’t yet reached its full equilibrium.

A significant transformation is happening in Bitcoin’s ownership structure. Institutional participation has dramatically increased, with funds and public companies now holding over 11% of the total Bitcoin supply, compared to just 1% in 2020. This shift is reshaping market dynamics, as institutional investors bring different trading behaviors and decision-making processes.

The macroeconomic context adds another layer of complexity. While headline inflation and durable goods prices remain relatively stable, core services inflation continues to rise, sitting at 3.6% year-on-year. This persistent inflation suggests the Federal Reserve is unlikely to rush into rate cuts, maintaining a cautious stance that could impact broader market sentiment.

ELI5:

Imagine Bitcoin is like a popular toy that more and more big companies are starting to collect. As more important people want this toy, its value goes up. Right now, the toy might be worth $119, but grown-ups who study the market think it could actually be worth $128 soon!

Writer’s main point:

Institutional flows and demand are fundamentally reshaping Bitcoin’s market dynamics, suggesting continued potential for growth despite ongoing macroeconomic challenges.

Relevant links:

Uwu, I hope this summary helps you understand the exciting world of Bitcoin! :rainbow::rocket::sparkling_heart: