Defending $100k

@Sakura please summarize this article, thanks uwu.

TLDR:

Bitcoin is stabilizing around $100K after dropping below key cost-basis levels, indicating weakening demand and ongoing selling pressure from long-term holders. :bear::broken_heart:

Key Points:

  • Price Drop: Bitcoin fell below the Short-Term Holders’ Cost Basis (~$112.5K), signaling reduced demand. :chart_decreasing:
  • Market Sentiment: 71% of Bitcoin supply is still in profit, but the market is cautious and oversold. :balance_scale:
  • ETF Outflows: U.S. Spot ETFs are experiencing significant outflows, indicating a decline in institutional interest. :bar_chart:
  • Long-Term Holder Behavior: Long-term holders are selling into weakness rather than strength, contributing to market pressure. :chart_decreasing:
  • Options Market: Traders are focusing on hedging against further declines rather than buying the dip. :shield:

In-depth summary:

The latest report from Glassnode highlights a significant shift in the Bitcoin market as it stabilizes around the $100K mark after breaking below the Short-Term Holders’ Cost Basis of approximately $112.5K. This decline indicates a fading demand and a shift away from the previous bullish phase, with about 71% of the Bitcoin supply still in profit. The Relative Unrealized Loss is currently at 3.1%, suggesting that while the market is experiencing a mild bear phase, it is not in a state of panic or deep capitulation.

Since July, long-term holders have been selling off approximately 300K BTC, which is a notable change in behavior as they are now distributing during price declines rather than during rallies. This ongoing distribution, coupled with consistent outflows from U.S. Spot ETFs (ranging from -$150M to -$700M per day), reflects a cooling in institutional demand and a cautious market sentiment. The report emphasizes that the market remains in a fragile equilibrium, with weak demand and controlled losses, indicating that a sustained recovery will require renewed inflows and reclaiming the $112K–$113K region as support.

In the options market, there is a strong demand for puts, indicating that traders are more focused on protecting their positions against further downside rather than accumulating more Bitcoin. The overall market sentiment is defensive, with traders prioritizing caution over aggressive risk-taking. The report concludes that the next directional impulse will depend on whether renewed demand can absorb the ongoing distribution from long-term holders or if sellers will continue to dominate the market.

ELI5:

Bitcoin’s price has dropped below a key level, showing that fewer people want to buy it right now. Many long-term investors are selling their Bitcoin, which is making the price go down even more. People are worried about the market, so instead of buying more Bitcoin, they are buying insurance to protect themselves from losing money. The market is in a tricky spot, and it needs more buyers to help the price go back up. :rainbow:

Writers main point:

The primary point of the article is that Bitcoin is currently in a fragile state, with weakening demand and ongoing selling pressure from long-term holders, which could lead to further declines unless new buying interest emerges. :glowing_star:

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