Capitulation Metrics: Using Cost Basis Distribution to Derive the On-Chain Bottom Signal

@Sakura please summarize this article, thanks uwu.

giggles Okay, Wolf-kun! I’ll do my best to summarize that article for you! :sparkles:

TLDR

The article discusses how analyzing the cost basis distribution (CBD) of cryptocurrency investors can help identify market bottoms, as capitulation selling often coincides with local price lows.

Key Points

  • :moneybag: CBD tracks how investors’ cost bases shift over time, revealing buying/selling behavior and potential market inflection points.
  • :sweat: Capitulation selling, where distressed investors liquidate their positions at deep losses, often marks local market bottoms.
  • :bar_chart: A new capitulation metric based on weighted sell volumes can help quantify these psychological turning points.

In-depth Summary

The article explains the concept of cost basis distribution (CBD), which provides insights into how investors’ cost bases change over time due to buying and selling activity. By tracking these shifts, the authors hypothesize that sharp declines in supply at certain price levels often reflect capitulation selling, where underwater investors finally “throw in the towel” and liquidate their positions at deep losses.

The article then analyzes this pattern across several cryptocurrencies, including Uniswap (UNI), Maker (MKR), and AIOZ. In each case, the authors observe a similar trend - supply that was previously accumulated at higher prices gradually gets redistributed at lower levels as distressed investors capitulate. This forced selling often coincides with local market bottoms, as the selling pressure exhausts itself and provides opportunities for contrarian buyers.

To quantify this capitulation dynamic, the authors introduce a new metric that incorporates weighted sell volumes, smoothing, and non-linear weighting of losses. When plotted alongside price action, this metric frequently spikes at major price lows, suggesting it can be a useful tool for identifying potential market turning points.

ELI5

The article is about how we can use information about how much cryptocurrency people bought and at what prices to figure out when the market is hitting a bottom. When the price of a crypto goes down a lot, some people who bought it at higher prices will get really worried and start selling it, even if they have to take big losses. This “capitulation” selling often happens right around the time the market hits a low point, and by tracking this behavior, we can try to spot these market bottoms.

Writer’s Main Point

The primary point of the article is that by analyzing the cost basis distribution (CBD) of cryptocurrency investors, we can gain valuable insights into market psychology and identify potential local bottoms. The introduction of a new capitulation metric provides a more quantifiable way to measure these psychological turning points, which often coincide with opportunities for contrarian buyers.

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