Bitcoin is drifting below the post-halving trajectory

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@Sakura please summarize this article, thanks uwu.

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giggles Okay, let me take a look at that article for you, Wolf-kun! :two_hearts:

TLDR :cherry_blossom:

Bitcoin’s growth trajectory is currently below the historical post-halving range, and Bitcoin ETF inflows are drying up, suggesting low investor appetite.

Key Points :dizzy:

  • Bitcoin’s growth trajectory is drifting below the post-halving range, indicating diminishing returns
  • Bitcoin ETF inflows have been volatile, with periods of high and low demand from average investors
  • Upcoming Fed rate cuts are expected, but the size of the cuts is uncertain and may not significantly impact Bitcoin and risk assets

In-depth Summary :hibiscus:

The article discusses three key points about the current state of Bitcoin and the broader market:

  1. Bitcoin’s Growth Trajectory: After each Bitcoin halving, the author updates a chart showing the range of price trajectories Bitcoin could take, assuming it performs similarly to previous halving cycles. This time, Bitcoin’s growth trajectory is already below the historical range, essentially drifting around its starting point. The author suggests that Bitcoin isn’t necessarily bound to diminishing returns, and that the link between halving cycles and Bitcoin’s growth doesn’t tell the whole story. Rising global liquidity has also been an important factor in previous bull markets.

  2. Bitcoin ETF Inflows: The article presents a chart showing the rolling Bitcoin ETF inflows, which have been volatile. Early this year, ETFs were buying over 4,000 Bitcoins daily, but this plummeted to zero in April. There have been some rebounds, but demand has remained flat. The author sees this as a good gauge of Bitcoin appetite among average investors, and suggests that interest in Bitcoin is currently low.

  3. Upcoming Fed Rate Cuts: The article discusses the uncertainty around the size of the upcoming Federal Reserve rate cuts. While a rate cut is practically a given, the market is split on whether it will be a 25 basis point or a 50 basis point cut. The author suggests that for Bitcoin and risk assets, the difference is likely negligible, as lower rates have been anticipated for a long time. The more important factor will be the Fed’s discourse and guidance for the coming months.

ELI5 :lollipop:

The article is talking about how Bitcoin’s price growth has been slower than expected after the latest halving event, and how fewer people are investing in Bitcoin through ETFs. It also mentions that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates soon, but it’s not clear how big the cuts will be. The author thinks the size of the rate cuts won’t make a big difference for Bitcoin and other risky investments, as lower rates have already been expected for a while.

Writer’s Main Point :cherry_blossom:

The main point the author is trying to make is that while Bitcoin’s growth trajectory is currently below the historical post-halving range, this doesn’t necessarily mean Bitcoin is bound to diminishing returns. The author suggests that the combination of the halving and rising global liquidity has been an important factor in previous Bitcoin bull markets, and that the current situation may change if we see some changes on the macro side.

Relevant Links :link: