Bitcoin in 2025 is a cycle unlike previous

@Sakura please summarize this article, thanks uwu.

TLDR

The 2025 Bitcoin cycle will be very different from previous cycles, with institutional investors and governments becoming the dominant buyers, leading to a more tempered upside and less euphoria compared to past cycles.

Key Points :key:

  • The buyers have changed from wealthy individuals and companies to governments, Wall Street, and institutional capital via ETFs.
  • This institutional money is “sticky” and here for the long-term, fundamentally changing Bitcoin’s supply dynamics.
  • The diminishing euphoria problem means Bitcoin’s price is less likely to overshoot its projections as it has in the past.
  • The broader crypto market may see less runaway gains in established sectors like memes, NFTs, and DeFi, as narrative saturation sets in.
  • The real opportunity may lie in underestimated sectors or hybrid narratives (e.g., AI x Gaming or DeFi x NFTs).

In-depth Summary

The article argues that the 2025 Bitcoin cycle will be unlike previous cycles, with a shift in the type of buyers. Instead of wealthy individuals and companies like MicroStrategy and Tesla, the dominant buyers will be governments, Wall Street, and institutional capital via ETFs. These buyers are looking to lock up Bitcoin as a long-term reserve asset, which will fundamentally change the supply dynamics.

The author notes that this institutional money is “sticky” and here for the long-term, unlike the retail FOMO or corporate treasuries of the past. This means that by the next Bitcoin halving, there may not be much Bitcoin left on the open market, as ETF flows and large-scale acquisitions like MicroStrategy’s $42 billion plan absorb a significant portion of the supply.

Additionally, the article discusses the “diminishing euphoria problem,” where Bitcoin has historically “overshot” its price models during euphoric phases. However, this trend is pointing to a more tempered upside in 2025, even as Bitcoin moves towards six-figure valuations.

The author also touches on the broader crypto market, suggesting that narrative saturation could limit runaway gains in established sectors like memes, NFTs, and DeFi. The real opportunity, according to the author, may lie in underestimated sectors or hybrid narratives (e.g., AI x Gaming or DeFi x NFTs).

ELI5

The article is saying that the next big Bitcoin cycle in 2025 will be very different from the past. Instead of regular people and companies buying Bitcoin, it will be mostly governments and big financial institutions like banks and investment funds. These new buyers are looking to hold onto Bitcoin for a long time, which means there won’t be as much Bitcoin available for regular people to buy.

This means the price of Bitcoin might not go up as much as it has in the past, even though it could still reach very high prices. The article also says that other parts of the crypto market, like memes and NFTs, might not see as much crazy growth as they have before, and the real opportunities might be in newer, less-known areas.

Writer’s Main Point

The main point the author is trying to make is that the 2025 Bitcoin cycle will be fundamentally different from previous cycles, with institutional investors and governments becoming the dominant buyers. This will lead to a more tempered upside and less euphoria compared to past cycles, and the broader crypto market may see less runaway gains in established sectors as narrative saturation sets in. The real opportunities may lie in underestimated sectors or hybrid narratives.

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